LiveEV
MLB Taker paper
Prices every MLB total and run line against our own model, and takes any side selling for at least 10 points less than we think it is worth — at the price on the book, not a resting quote. No real orders are ever placed. Hover any ? for an explanation.
Paper P&L?
-19.61u
364 settled · $-1585.81 on $35479 staked
Realised edge?
-1.69c
per contract · we quote for +10c
Model vs reality?
-133.89u
promised +114.28u · got -19.61u
Fill rate?
10.0%
372 of 3733 quotes
Fill balance?
247b / 125s
lopsided means one side is informed
Win rate
39.8%
145–219 on settled fills
Resting now
0
quotes live in the market
Paper only, and brand new. This places no real orders. It stopped being a
two-sided market maker on 30 August — resting quotes 10 points off fair value sat about
9 cents behind the top of book and only ever traded when the market swept through them.
It now simply takes: when a side is priced at least 10 points better than our own
probability, it crosses the spread and buys it, at the price actually on the book.
Nothing has settled in any number worth reading yet, so treat every figure below as a
sample of two games rather than a result.
Model vs reality?
| Model said | n | Predicted | Actual | Delta | Expected | Realised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20-29% | 5 | 26.8% | 0.0% | -26.8pp | +3.44u | -5.00u |
| 30-39% | 48 | 36.8% | 25.0% | -11.8pp | +21.98u | -1.50u |
| 40-49% | 99 | 44.7% | 32.3% | -12.3pp | +36.14u | -3.00u |
| 50-59% | 94 | 54.6% | 41.5% | -13.2pp | +27.01u | -3.37u |
| 60-69% | 82 | 63.9% | 48.8% | -15.1pp | +18.78u | -5.78u |
| 70-79% | 36 | 75.3% | 61.1% | -14.2pp | +6.93u | -0.97u |
Fills by lead time?
| Filled | Fills | P&L | Per contract | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24h+ before first pitch | 111 | $-2778.13 | -10.01c | 34.2% |
| 12-24h before first pitch | 171 | $-3517.76 | -7.78c | 33.3% |
| 6-12h before first pitch | 49 | $+2053.34 | +15.21c | 55.1% |
| 2-6h before first pitch | 33 | $+2656.74 | +36.60c | 69.7% |
By market
| Market | Fills | Bought / sold | P&L | Per contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Totals | 362 | 237 / 125 | $-1785.67 | -1.91c |
| Run lines | 2 | 2 / 0 | $+199.86 | +47.25c |
Recent fills
| Filled | Contract | Side | Price | Model | Lead | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 17:27 | KXMLBTOTAL-26OCT051700CWSCLE-9 | bought | 33.0¢ | 44.2% | 27.5h | $-99.99 |
| 2026-10-04 17:27 | KXMLBTOTAL-26OCT051700CWSCLE-8 | bought | 41.0¢ | 52.3% | 27.5h | $-100.04 |
| 2026-10-04 17:27 | KXMLBTOTAL-26OCT051700CWSCLE-7 | bought | 52.0¢ | 63.9% | 27.5h | $+92.16 |
| 2026-10-04 17:27 | KXMLBTOTAL-26OCT051700CWSCLE-6 | bought | 62.0¢ | 72.1% | 27.5h | $+61.18 |
| 2026-10-03 17:07 | KXMLBTOTAL-26OCT031600ATLLAD-9 | sold | 48.0¢ | 36.4% | 2.9h | $+92.16 |
| 2026-10-03 17:07 | KXMLBTOTAL-26OCT031600ATLLAD-8 | sold | 56.0¢ | 44.5% | 2.9h | $-99.88 |
| 2026-10-03 17:07 | KXMLBTOTAL-26OCT031600ATLLAD-7 | sold | 67.0¢ | 56.4% | 2.9h | $-99.99 |
| 2026-09-27 13:07 | KXMLBTOTAL-26SEP271505TBPHI-8 | bought | 40.0¢ | 50.7% | 6.0h | $+150.00 |
| 2026-09-27 13:07 | KXMLBTOTAL-26SEP271505TBPHI-7 | bought | 52.0¢ | 62.4% | 6.0h | $+92.16 |
| 2026-09-27 05:47 | KXMLBTOTAL-26SEP271520BALNYY-10 | bought | 32.0¢ | 42.2% | 11.3h | open |
| 2026-09-27 05:07 | KXMLBTOTAL-26SEP271505NYMWSH-7 | bought | 67.0¢ | 77.9% | 12.0h | $+49.17 |
| 2026-09-27 04:18 | KXMLBTOTAL-26SEP271510COLCWS-7 | bought | 69.0¢ | 79.7% | 14.9h | $-100.05 |
| 2026-09-27 03:12 | KXMLBTOTAL-26SEP271510STLMIL-6 | bought | 64.0¢ | 75.7% | 16.0h | $+56.16 |
| 2026-09-26 23:57 | KXMLBTOTAL-26SEP271510COLCWS-12 | bought | 25.0¢ | 35.6% | 19.2h | $-100.00 |
| 2026-09-26 23:47 | KXMLBTOTAL-26SEP271510COLCWS-8 | bought | 57.0¢ | 67.3% | 19.4h | $-99.75 |
| 2026-09-26 23:42 | KXMLBTOTAL-26SEP271510COLCWS-10 | bought | 40.0¢ | 50.6% | 19.5h | $-100.00 |
| 2026-09-26 23:42 | KXMLBTOTAL-26SEP271510STLMIL-10 | bought | 27.0¢ | 37.3% | 19.5h | $+270.10 |
| 2026-09-26 23:33 | KXMLBTOTAL-26SEP271510STLMIL-8 | bought | 44.0¢ | 55.0% | 19.6h | $+127.12 |
| 2026-09-26 23:07 | KXMLBTOTAL-26SEP271510STLMIL-9 | bought | 36.0¢ | 46.9% | 20.0h | $+177.92 |
| 2026-09-26 22:43 | KXMLBTOTAL-26SEP271510STLMIL-7 | bought | 56.0¢ | 66.0% | 20.4h | $+78.76 |